Obama’s Fading Hope

Posted on August 28, 2011



My take on whether Obama is still in the game as regards his chances for re-election:

The independents that were the swing voters that got Obama elected are now opposed to him by a better than 70 to 30 split. The youth vote is disillusioned.

The Latino vote being a critical factor in a Presidential election, is a myth of the media at large and the Associated Press, along with some very out of touch ‘eggheads’ behind the beltway, who are either so lazy they haven’t bothered to study Census reports or the analysis of them done by the Pew Hispanic Center.  Assuming a consistent growth rate trend of Hispanic voting registration, it is still a long way off, decades in fact, before Hispanics could even theoretically influence with any great magnitude, a Presidential or Congressional election, other than in the districts that have been carved out by Democrats as Latino barrios.

The third leg of the stool is Black voters, which, although they will still vote for a Democrat and a Black candidate by a wide margin, will still trend by anywhere from 5 to 10 percentage points away from Democrats.  Working Blacks are in small numbers at least, re-considering their historical alliance with the Democratic party – especially since the jobless numbers and the wage depreciation are hitting the states and neighborhoods where they live in a considerably disproportionate numbers.

Finally, the far Left, the ‘Progressives’.  Yes, the Unions will drive their members to the poll in buses or with a Bull Whip if needed, but beyond that, disappointed liberals become disinterested in elections.  Just a slight erosion in all of the above segments of the Democrat base spells inevitable doom for Obama and Senate Democrats.  Should Tea Party members and Conservatives treat the next 12 months as though the game was won and it’s garbage time?  Absolutely not.  We’ve got the opposition on the run and we need to keep up the pressure – no argument there.

If I’m cajoled into stating what I think is the only sensible scenario in terms of a VP nominee, I’ve got to pick Rudy Guiliani – a man that level headed New Yorkers greatly miss as Mayor.  That’s right, Guiliani!  He’s not quite my brand of ‘social conservative’, I’ll admit, but the man has a hell of a lot of gravitas, he has integrity in spades and he is a decent, honorable fellow.  He also will respectfully put his best foot forward even when there may be areas of policy where he and the Prez nominee don’t see eye-to-eye.  He’s also the kind of sensible and take charge kind of man that would step in in a crisis and take the helm, demonstrating competency that will be respected around the world.  I would also say, that even though he hasn’t written extensively like Gingrich, I would rate Guiliani’s intellect at a level equal to Gingrich and I would rate his street smarts a cut above.