I’ve been out visiting my 88 year old mother, whom I mentioned, has become a gun enthusiast in the last few months. Maybe because she has a sharpened sense of isolation now that my stepfather passed away early this year – or maybe it is just that there is something in the air in Arizona. Arizona is a gun lover’s state. Liberals and anyone with a dislike for firearms, are a little uneasy in the Grand Canyon state. That’s why I enjoy the place so much. I feel like a Goldfish who has just been plopped back into the water.
Or, maybe I feel like a Goldwater, Barry. The Right One.
Mom was asking me whether I thought there was any chance of getting the other ‘Barry’, Barry Soetoro – out of the White House. Her concern was all the stupid and / or distracted people that may be going to vote this November. I explained first of all, how the political polls she sees, are conducted. The polls showing pretty much a neck and neck race between Barry and Mitt, are polls that drag a wide net and correspondingly pull in a lot of people who, on election day, will find some excuse or lack of motivation to actually go to the polls. So I said that not only can these polls be ‘cooked’ by virtue of who is selected for the survey, but also in terms of how and what questions are asked.
It’s clear why this is done. The elites are firmly of the belief that Americans in general, succumb to the ‘herd’ mentality. “Gee, if everyone else thinks Candidate A is off the hook, then maybe I should go that way too. Don’t want to be out of step with the crowd (lemmings)”. I’d hate to think that collectively we’ve gotten that zombie in this country, but I’m not a pollster.
But one of the most significant factors in these national polls is a built in generational demographic imbalance. Actually two – let me explain. The first is that these pollsters are calling people who still have landline phones. Young adults from 18 to 36 are increasingly unlikely to actually have anything other than a mobile phone. So, now the numbers are skewed towards middle aged and elderly.
The other factor with the surveys in terms of a built in reality deficit, is the middle aged and middle income category, where people no longer agree to share their political opinions and leanings spontaneously with a total stranger over the telephone, when their is no vetting process for the call recipient. You don’t know who this person is or whether they in fact, actually represent a legitimate polling organization. People rightly assume the possibility that there might be another agenda for the call. It’s not even outside the realm of possibility that an employer trying to covertly discover the political orientation of an employee, might hire someone to falsely represent a pollster. Certainly, it has been widely reported that employers are studying their employees’ social media habits and activities.
Then, what do you have left among that semi-fictional ‘1,100 surveyed residents’ or however the pollsters characterize them? You have people – and I’m sorry to say this, that are dumb enough to tell their political views to a stranger over the telephone. Add to that, you conceivably are missing a lot of society’s most highly mobile and presumably, best informed people – those no longer tethered to a landline.
Yes, I know that Sean Hannity’s and Jay Leno’s person in the street interviews would seem to betray the ‘informed’ part of my assumption, but there’s no entertainment value in filming people who are well informed. It’s the clueless people that make for better radio or TV. And again, of course – the same people who won’t provide opinions over the phone are not going to stand in front of a TV camera or radio microphone. Bottom line, when you distill it all down, the people actually surveyed are not the brightest bulbs in the ceiling.
The other thing I told my mom was that if a poll doesn’t purport to have surveyed actual ‘likely voters’, you can throw the results out the window completely. It’s then just garbage in, garbage out. Which brings us to a set of statistics that has to have the Obama campaign in panic mode.
Remember the constant drumbeat from the ‘legacy’ media, how national elections are going to be determined by voters in the ‘swing states’ and that Hispanics are going to be the voting segment that is going to control the outcome of the election? I have been hearing, studying and refuting that assertion for over six years now. Based on the actual Census numbers, there is no growing wave of ‘Hispanic’ voters. There, of course, has been a small but steady increase in the numbers of Hispanics nationally and some marginal, but unimpressive growth in voter registration, but nothing that would suggest a Juggernaut of monumental proportions. The stories from the Associated Press, as usual, are a combination of political propaganda, wishful thinking, morale boosting, fear mongering and most of all – outright misrepresentation of the truth.
If the Obama campaign is waiting for the minority and youth vote to ride in on a White horse (unfortunate juxtaposition), they are going to be sleeping on the porch because there will be no such event. According to the Washington Post:
Voter rolls typically shrink in non-presidential election years and registrations fell among whites as well, but this is the first time in nearly four decades that the number of registered Hispanics has dropped significantly. That figure fell 5 percent across the country, to about 11 million, according to the Census Bureau. But in some politically important swing states, the decline among Hispanics, who are considered critical in the 2012 presidential contest, is much higher: just over 28 percent in New Mexico, for example, and about 10 percent in Florida.
Among Latinos, the decline has altered a trend line of marginal growth. Based on the 12 million Latinos that were registered to vote in 2008, some analysts projected the number would grow to 13 million in 2010 and 14 million this election cycle. Instead, it fell in 2010 to 11 million. Among the prevailing social strata of the recent immigrants that have arrived from Latin America, there is not a culturally ingrained habit of voting or a general perception that in the face of the widespread corruption in those countries that votes have any impact in reforming society. The beltway types that are always interviewed by the liberal media, either don’t understand that reality or are just whistling in the graveyard.
The Obama campaign is betting the ranch that they’ll be able to go like bunnies between now and the election and sign up millions of voters. There are just a few little hitches to their git along this time around. They are called voter protection laws – or that is to say, laws protecting legal voters from having their votes nullified by fraud.
“It is disheartening to see voting becoming harder in states across the country,” said Katie Hogan, a spokeswoman for the Obama campaign. “We’re doing the challenging work of registering voters, even when Republican legislation is trying to make it more difficult.” Translated, vote stealing machines like ACORN are running into roadblocks in the form of additional scrutiny and legislation passed in 12 states requiring voters to present state issued photo I.D.’s when they show up to vote – as well as regulations designed to make bogus registration more difficult. Keep in mind, the I.D. doesn’t have to be a Driver’s License – it can be what we affectionately used to refer to as a ‘walker’s permit’. To listen to these Democrats, you’d think that an authentic, government issued photo I.D. was something akin to the ‘Mark of the Beast’. Oh, the humanity!
Naturally, Democrats who count Blacks and Hispanics as plantation slaves, are furious and defiant. In four of the states, the Democrat Governors have vetoed the new rules. “We’re seeing the squeeze put on voters of color. They were hit by the economy, they have to re-register to vote, and now they are hit by new registration requirements,” said Judith Browne Dianis, a civil rights lawyer and co-director of the Advancement Project, which is challenging the laws in several states. A quick look at their website reveals the same old twaddle about ‘social justice’ and ‘structural racism’, la la la, yada yada.
Maybe this is an insensitive question, but why would anyone who would be otherwise eligible to vote, not have a state issued I.D. card? Don’t they need one for the purposes of registration of a vehicle, purchase of prescription drugs, to buy alcohol, adopt a pet, purchase a rifle, write a check at the grocery store, make a credit card purchase at many stores, apply for a loan to purchase anything, start a new bank account, receive a marriage license, drive, close on a house, get medical care, to pick up a mailbox key from the US Post Office, get on a plane, to get insurance, to rent an apartment, to get a job, to get a hotel room, to rent a car, to get into City Hall, and a myriad of other things?
I guess my common sense just stands in the way of me understanding the nuances of Liberal / Progressive / Democrat higher thought processes. Woe is me – chained to the destiny of being a life long ‘rube’.