Editor’s Note: This post was a personal ‘Waterloo’ for me. I slightly made a colossal maroon out of myself, having believed – (worse yet, publicly proclaiming) that Romney was going to drop 308 electoral votes on Obama. I’d like to say that I had no such notion, and that I was just hustling you for a big time take down, sucker bet – but I can’t. I really was that clueless. Not any more. I’m going to look before I leap and before I leap, I’m going to look again a couple of times and get a third opinion.
I elected (pardon the pun), not to remove this embarrassing post, because I think when one lays a big enough egg to supply Dennys’ breakfast menu for a day, he should memorialize his failures. It’s beneficial in tamping down one’s arrogance. I won’t blame American voters, I’ll blame myself for thinking they were smarter than they were. They doubled down on stupid and now they own it.
I know many of you are a little anxious regarding the election. Nearly all the media outlets are painting a fatalistic picture about the inevitability of Obama’s re-election. On the face of it, it would seem that the tactic is intended to discourage the anti-Obama faction and to push the many in our society that don’t have a shred of independent thinking in their DNA, to let the crowd prompt their decision.
As I see things, the ‘Bandwagon’ syndrome is not going to get it done this time around. Look at the enormous crowds for the Romney rallies in Ohio. Look at the pitiful fraction Obama is getting. The thrill is gone.
The long and short of it is that Romney will win by a minimum of 280 Electoral College votes on the low end, or a total of 308 ECV’s on the high end. That will be the range.
Just for the sake of speculation, I wanted to see what would happen if I gave Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio back to Obama. Keep in mind, Pennsylvania is back in play and trending Romney – according to the New York Times!!!! But in my 308 Romney tally, I already gave that to Obama just to steer away from over-exuberance.
Even pulling Ohio, Michigan and Minnesota off the table, Romney STILL comes away with 280. I have noticed that Chris Wallace and some others on Fox News are beginning to act fatalistic about Obama getting re-elected. That’s really strange. Karl Rove is on there frequently and I hear he’s telling them that it’s ridiculous to start acting glum and outlining all the inside factors that favor Romney and I guess they are looking at him and rolling their eyes.
I can’t help but speculate that some on Fox are looking at the election from a ratings standpoint. Four more years of Obama keeps the angry Red State people glued to the tube every night listening to Hannity and O’Reilly prattle. I’d be curious to know if that thought has crossed your mind as well.
You know that I’m no Karl Rove fan, but as a campaign / electorate analyst, I’d need some solid fundamentals in hand, to second guess his instinct on this. There’s also Michael Barone – calling it for Romney, unequivocally.
Barone, like Rove, is one of those geeky, number crunchers who can tell you where all the voters are, down to the county and practically to the precinct; so he’s not merely one of the wishful thinkers or cheerleaders.
Here’s where I think the pollsters are all wet. First of all, not all pollsters. If you look at Gallup’s full analysis, Obama is set for defeat. But most of the others that are affiliated with the MSM are still using 2008 exit poll data and weighing party affiliation based on it. That is nearly fraudulent at this point.
No, I’ll go ahead and say it. That is patently fraudulent. Those polls seem to be engineered for the sole purpose of projecting the inevitability of the incumbent.
The NBC-Wall Street Journal-Marist poll of likely Ohio voters published on Nov. 3 is a fraud among fraudulent polls. The likely voter pool in this survey included 38 percent who said they were Democrats, 29 percent who said they were Republicans, 32 percent who said they were Independents and 1 percent who said they had another affiliation.
Tilting the party affiliation by 9 points? I’m not even going to ask if they are kidding me. I know they are. Not only does it (the NBC poll) use outdated voter preference models, but it factors in ‘leaners’. Leaners are a subspecies of another election day group that has turned out to be a flop for those factoring them – undecideds. In this case, ‘leaners’ are simply squishy undecideds. Fail.
According to a new CNN poll, Romney is beating President Obama 59 percent to 35 percent among independents even when third party candidates are included. The poll has the race deadlocked at 49 percent, but the sample includes 11 percent more Democrats than Republicans, 41 percent to 30 percent, a bigger gap than recent elections have witnessed.
Again, a specious party preference skew – but Romney is STILL polling neck and neck. That means in actuality, we could have a landslide lurking in the shadows of the MSM coverage.
Some are boldly predicting such an outcome. I’ve been monitoring Romney’s advantage on the independent numbers and it has been consistently holding at between 11 and 17 points. The CNN polls scores Romney winning that by 24 points! If you split the difference on their error prone voter affiliation, independents could break for Romney by 29 points.
What’s more, the poll found a slight edge for Romney when it came to those who call themselves “very enthusiastic” about voting. In that category, Romney beats Obama 42 percent to 37 percent. That 5 percent gap is actually quite a bit on the low end of the averages I’ve seen for voter enthusiasm – but even 5 percent could be a deal killer for Obama’s hopes.
My final two closing arguments for Romney’s election day after tomorrow:
Romney has closed the gap on early voting. The Democrats saw early voting as their best shot at winning the election, because statistically early voting favors Dems, while Absentee favors GOP. Actual voting on election day leans Republican as well. Well, their early voting gambit is falling flat on its face. One down, two to go.
Next – voter enthusiasm. The GOP has been leading that statistic by an average of 13 points. Advantage Romney. Fred Barnes comments that Romney does well among “high-propensity-voting” blocs such as, in the Battleground Poll, seniors (54 percent), married voters (56 percent), weekly church attendees (59 percent), white evangelicals (79 percent), and gun owner householders (60 percent). He also leads among key demographic groups such as suburban voters (54 percent), Catholics (53 percent), and middle class voters (52 percent).
I’ll throw this out there. There’s a story that a lot of people are hearing about. Glen Doherty’s mother is telling the media that Obama killed her son. Picture this scene in your mind:
You’re an average, middle of the road American getting set to vote and things haven’t quite crystallized in your mind yet. On one hand, you are now dismissing all the early euphoria about how Obama was ‘Mr. Take Charge’ following the Hurricane Sandy event, because the actual facts are coming out about things not being all that rosy. Staten Island, etc.
On the other hand, you’ve just heard a mother expressing grief about how Obama and Hillary just sat back and let her son be slaughtered and didn’t lift a finger. And you know that the Administration is dragging its feet about the details.
Do you reckon you really have a lot of confidence in Obama’s empty promises at this point?
After all I’ve said here – please don’t let up until the whistle has blown. Make this a four quarter game. Following through tomorrow is your most important duty for this country.